A recent study dives deep into trends in life expectancy across the world's longest-lived populations from 1990-2019, and the results are eye-opening:
Key Findings:
1. Life Expectancy Growth is Slowing: After dramatic gains in the 20th century, improvements have decelerated. Only South Korea & Hong Kong briefly met "radical life extension" rates (0.3 years/year increase) in the 1990s-2000s.
2. Mortality Compression: People are living longer, but deaths are concentrated in narrower age ranges. Lifespan inequality is declining, limiting further life expectancy growth.
3. Few Will Reach 100: On average, only 5.1% of females and 1.8% of males are expected to live to 100. Even in Hong Kong, the highest achiever, the rates are just 12.8% for women & 4.4% for men.
4. The Hard Fight Ahead: Extending life expectancy by just 1 year now requires significantly greater reductions in mortality. Radical goals like a 110-year life expectancy would demand near-elimination of major causes of death.
5. Medical & Biological Limits: Aging biology remains the biggest hurdle. Current medical technologies are far from achieving the breakthroughs needed to slow aging significantly.
While more people will reach older ages due to demographic shifts, true "radical life extension" this century is unlikely without transformative medical advances.
The future?
Advances in aging science (geroscience) hold promise, but for now, radical life extension remains out of reach.
Are we dreaming too big or just getting started?
Olshansky, S. J., Willcox, B. J., Demetrius, L., & Beltrán-Sánchez, H. (2024). Implausibility of radical life extension in humans in the twenty-first century. Nature Aging, 4(11), 1635-1642. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43587-024-00702-3
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